For those of you that have been reading my blogs, this is the tenth tutorial class in basic economics.
This blog is about the truth. It is about economics and business. I am an entrepreneur and businessman, not a politician. I do not like politics. Politics has come to represent an example of mankind’s lowest and cruelest tendencies driven by hatred. It seems that there is no longer room for civil disagreement and open debate.
I, along with many Americans, am fed up with politicians and the mainstream media distorting economic facts and ignoring proven, accepted economic principles, because those principles contradict their political positions. The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, The Boston Globe, USA Today, CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN and MSNBC and other liberal media outlets are communicating distorted economic facts and omitting important economic statistics in the guise of reporting economic news.
I travel a great deal, both domestically and internationally on business. I am saddened when I observe my fellow citizens and others in airports and coffee shops reading these distortions and none the wiser. We are creating a dangerous world when we distort the truth to gain power. Every country where uninformed citizens have allowed themselves to be fooled by dishonest politicians, seduced by political pandering promises of free health care, free 401k retirement contributions, free $5,000 contributions for having children and voted like sheep to elect them, have wound up impoverished and lost their basic God given free rights.
How many examples of failed collectivist and central planning governments do we need before we get it? Before the Democrats get it? I again repeat Sir Winston Churchill's wise words: "Socialism (I add Liberalism) is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery."
After that introduction, let’s get on with class #10.
The economic drivers that increase GDP and personal wealth for all citizens willing to work are: technology, investment and population (people). What crushes economic growth is high taxes and excessive government regulation of business activities.
It is a historically proven fact that it is necessary for the private sector to invest capital in economic ventures for economic growth to occur. When governments have tried to substitute themselves for private investors, the results have been mostly disastrous, any good results have been temporary and eventually backfired and reduced economic growth in the sector they interfered in.
Investors demand that they receive back their original investment in an asset, plus all costs of regulation and taxes in acquiring, operating and disposing of it, plus about a 3% inflation and risk adjusted rate of return, before the asset becomes unproductive (depreciation). This gross rate of return is called the “service price of capital”.
In our current economy that rate is 20.3% (Institute for Research on the economics of Taxation). This means that you should not create an economic asset unless you are convinced that the “hurdle rate” is 20.3% or less.
AXIOM: THE LOWER THE HURDLE RATE, THE HIGHER THE VALUE OF THE ASSETS EMPLOYED BECOME, THE HIGHER INDIVIDUAL WAGES GROW AND THE HIGHER GDP GROWS.
Now let’s examine the true facts about the economy. The tax cuts of 2003, known as the “Bush Tax Cuts”, which included:
reducing the capital gains tax and dividend tax to 15% from 20% (Bill Clinton reduced the rate from 25% to 20% in 1992)
reducing the top 4 individual tax rates reducing estate taxes
This is a significant reduction and has translated into 3 years of
Unemployment of less than 5%
Average GDP growth of 3.2%
Federal budget deficit fell in 2007 by 35% to $161 billion
Since 2004 deficit spending has tumbled by $251 billion (one of the most rapid declines in US history)
The deficit is now down to 1.2% of GDP (half of the average of the past 50 years) despite a $200 billion post 9/11 tab for the war on terror, including Iraq
Tax revenue for 2007 was $2,568 trillion, or 6.7% higher than 2006
Tax receipts have climbed by $758 billion since the 2003 tax cuts took effect
Individual tax receipts have soared by 46.3% in 4 years (with most of the increase coming from the wealthy)
Federal revenue in 2007 is 18.8% of GDP compared with an 18.2% average over the past 40 years.
There is a limited period of time that returns from initial original capital investment can continue to grow. Capital investment made due to the growth impact of the 2003 tax cuts will start to taper off 2008 -2013. It will take extending those tax cuts and additional tax cuts to keep GDP growth going.
Other countries have taken notice of the successful results of the Bush Tax Cuts and are abandoning their liberal tax and spend policies in favor of "economics 101" tax reductions. Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam, Austria, Northern Ireland all have cut taxes this year or are in the process of doing so. Germany has reduced the corporate tax rate from 39% to under 30%. France is proposing tax reductions of 5% for corporations. Spain and Italy are in the process of tax rate reductions. Eastern Europe is in the midst of a low rate flat tax revolution. There are now 14 nations with a flat tax system as opposed to the liberal, socialist progressive system in the USA.
Every Democratic presidential candidate along with Democratic Senators and Representatives in the House want you to ignore this truth. They are all advocating increased taxes and more government regulation in every aspect of our daily lives. They have decided to ignore time proven economic laws and the actual successful results of the tax cuts and drive the country toward a proven losing economic system of collectivism and central planning.
Knowing this will drive the country into economic poverty, why would so called intelligent people advocate this course of economic suicide? Most elected congress members have law degrees. They have received excellent educations.
In 1968 Democratic President Lyndon Johnson passed 10% war surtax on income. Investment spending crashed by 7% and it is now economists agree that it triggered the 1969-1970 recession.
In 1990 Japan imposed a capital gains tax for the first time in its history and increased individual and business taxes. It crashed stock and land prices and crushed investment. It took Japan 15 years to recover.
By repealing the Bush Tax Cuts, including increasing the current 15% capital gains tax, the “service price of capital” or the “hurdle rate” would increase by 10% from 20.3% to 22.5%. Capital investment would immediately plummet. Not only would planning for new projects cease, but many existing projects would be closed down. Hours worked would go down around 2%. Private sector output and wage and capital income would drop by 7%. The United States, our country, would plummet into the economic darkness of the Jimmy Carter years. It took many years to recover from that disaster.
If our government goes down this road, as the Democrats are planning, we should expect the same results.
Let’s spread the truth about economics. There is no need to disparage our fellow citizens who mistakenly want to distort and deny these economic truths. The truth speaks for itself. This is not about belonging to a political party. Whether you’re a Democrat, Republican, Independent, Libertarian, or whatever, this is about the truth. It is about undistorted facts.
If you care about your family’s financial future, the future of opportunities that should be available for your children, and the economy of the United States of America, please forward this blog link to at least 10 friends.
Thank you and may God bless you, your family, our country and all nations